Melissa Savenko's Richmond Real Estate Review

Open House at Windsor Court Condominiums in the Fan District TODAY from 1-4

I'll be holding the Windsor Court Condominiums open today from 1:00-4:00 p.m, 1608-1614 Grove Avenue.  These are beautiful, newly renovated units, centrally located in the Fan, within walking distance of numerous restaurants, shops, art galleries, etc.  They're also only six blocks from Harrison Street, the start - or maybe the heart? - of the VCU campus.  Even if you're not a student, that puts you super-close to the VCU Theater and other cultural resources, which is really quite cool.  My daughter and I live around the corner from Windsor Court, and we like to walk down to VCU to catch plays on occasion.

Here are some of my favorite restaurants or shops, all within a six block walk of Windsor Court:

• Lombardy Market, right around the corner on Lombardy Street (duh!) - great sandwiches, all the staples + great wine and beer selection, AND they give my dog dog biscuits;
• Kuba Kuba, Lombardy and Park - awesome Cuban food in ridiculously sized portions.  Think dinner for two days;
• Sidewalk Cafe, Main and Rowland - my favorite brunch in town, with the Cajun Hash and pitchers of mimosas.  And Edwina, a server at Sidewalk, is a complete character and always makes it fun.  She's even got a toast for newly engaged folks, which I shall not reveal.  You've got to hear her do it yourself;
• Rowlands, Main and Shields - one of my favorite Fan "fancy" dinner place, although it is still Fan casual;
• Joe's Inn, Shields between Grove and Hanover - a neighborhood institution, also with insanely large portions at very reasonable prices.  Super-kid friendly and you can get breakfast all day!;
• Strawberry Street Vineyard, Strawberry Street - it makes me feel good to be buying local and supporting small businesses, esp. when they are this helpful and not at all wine-snobby; and
• Edo Squid, Harrison between Grace and Franklin - the Fan version of the original Mamma Zu's.  'Nuff said.

Prices at Windsor Court start at $194,900 and each unit comes with one dedicated parking space.  So if you're a first-time buyer who wants to live in the actual Fan, but can't afford a $300,000 house, which is about where fixer-upper single-family homes start these days, this could be the option for you!  Stop by and take a look.  I bet you'll like what you see.

Breaking News - Here Are the Details of the New and Improved Home Buyer Tax Credit

Here's a chart from the National Association of Realtors explaining all the changes.  Now let's sell some houses, people!

Some Skeptical Tax Credit Extension Will Help Housing Market

According to RISMedia's article titled "What Impact Will Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension Have on Housing Industry?", not everyone believes the tax credit extension will be much help to a VERY fragile housing market recovery. 

In case you hadn't heard, a Senate Committee passed legislation extending the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit through April 30, 2010, and offering a new $6,500 tax credit to certain home buyers who are buying a replacement primary residence.  Of course, the $6,500 tax credit comes with all kinds of strings - income limitations, have to have been in the existing home a minimum of five years, blah, blah, blah. 

Skeptics think the timing of the tax credit extension means it will have less impact than some hope.  There is no doubt that we are going into the traditionally slowest selling time of the year in real estate, the dreaded Thanksgiving - New Year's black hole.  And first time buyers may feel they can just stop paying attention and wait until February or so to get back into the market.  That's what I am afraid will happen.  And if those first time buyers stop buying for the next several months, and the Area 10 numbers from yesterday are representative of the broader Richmond market....OUCH.   

But what about this new $6,500 tax credit for buyers of a "new" primary residence?  These are the elusive "move up buyers" that have been missing in this housing market "recovery."  Sure, the lower price ranges - $200,000 and below - have shown robust sales growth, but the sales rate in price ranges above $200,000 have been either flat or even down substantially.  What is supposed to happen in a healthy housing market is that first time home buyer buys a $200,000 house, and then THAT seller buys a $300,000 house, and then THAT seller buys a $450,000 house, and....  You get the drill.  But the super weird thing about this market - those sellers in the first time home buyer price range, the guy or gal selling the $200,000 house, are quite often not buying ANYTHING.

But where are these sellers going?  Anecdotally, they're renting.  Or moving home.  Or moving in with roommates, girlfriends, boyfriends.  If they were lucky enough to have made some money on the sale of their home, they seem to be socking it away for a rainy day.

Why?  I'm no economist, nor should I play one on TV, but I think it's the job market.  I don't think there are too many people out there who feel secure in their jobs.  Possible exceptions include medical professionals, educators, police/fire/EMTs, government workers.  But I can't think of a lot of other fields that are employment-stable or growing right now. 

I don't mean to be all doom-and-gloom.  I'm hoping to be wrong, trust me.  And maybe Congress will get smart and front-load BOTH tax credits, so each month they decrease by some set amount.  That would encourage legitimate buyers, people who are going to buy anyway, to do it sooner rather than later.  Unfortunately, my crystal ball is in the shop this week.  But I'm all for cautious optimism. 

Analysis of Pending Properties in Urban Richmond - A Sobering Look

Well, I just ran the pending properties in Area 10 of the City of Richmond.  Area 10 is realtor-speak for Fulton Hill, Church Hill, Downtown, Oregon Hill, Jackson Ward, Carver, the Maymont/Byrd Park area, the Fan District, Carytown, and the Museum District.  "Pending" properties are under contract, but haven't yet closed.

Here are the results as of today, November 3, 2009:

• Priced $200,000 or under: 65
• Priced $200,001-$300,000:    17
• Priced $300,001-$400,000:    5
• Priced over $400,000:    3
• TOTAL PENDINGS: 90

Ouch.  If you do most of your business in the Fan District and the Museum District, where you can't get into a single family home for less than $250,000, in the case of the Museum District, and less than $300,000 in the case of the Fan District, them's not good numbers.  AND, what you get for those entry level prices are typically going to be fixer-uppers.  My clients that want fixer-uppers are few and far between, these days.

Clearly, as we keep hearing, the first time home buyers are driving the real estate market.  But with the current tax credit expiring November 30, 2009 and talk of an extension of that credit to April 2010, activity even in that market has slowed to a glacial pace.

People have missed the window on the existing tax credit.  Buyers without a house under contract are rolling the dice that the credit gets extended until April 30, 2010, the current proposal on the table.  If that happens, I'm worried those first time home buyers will sit on the fence until late Winter, early Spring 2010.  That could make for a long, hard winter.  What might change that?  If interest rates go up.  I'm staying optimistic, but this market has been completely squirrely.  Stay tuned.....

MORE Mixed News on Housing and the Economy

Well, Saturday's Richmond Times-Dispatch has three different articles - in it's tiny, tiny four page Business section - that address some of the difficulties the housing recovery faces.

First, there is an article addressing yesterday's disappointing news about consumer spending, which drives 70% of the total economic activity for the U.S. economy.  Incomes were flat in September, while wages and salaries dropped 0.2%.  All this resulted in a consumer pull-back in spending by 0.5%.  This creates BIG concerns about consumer spending in the upcoming holiday season.  The stock market reacted with big sell-offs, with the Dow Jones dropping just under 250 points.

Second, Genworth announced that it would be relaxing it's standards and would now start issuing primary mortgage insurance, or PMI, to individuals putting down 5% for the purchase of a home.  Genworth had been offering PMI only in instances where the buyer put down 10% or more of the purchase price of a home.  PMI is the tool banks use to ensure that they have adequate coverage to recover their full loan amount in case the home owner defaults on his or her mortgage.  PMI is required in transactions where the buyer puts down less than 20% of the purchase price of the home.  When one puts down 20% of the purchase price or more to purchase a home, this is considered a "conventional" mortgage and no PMI is required.  In those instances, the 20% down payment, or buyer's equity, in the home is considered sufficient "cushion" to allow the bank to recover it's full loan amount and cover any costs, should the buyer go into default on his or her mortgage.

This news about Genworth is really good for the housing market.  One of the results of the housing crisis was the bankruptcy or restructuring of many, many mortgage insurance providers.  This meant PMI was available from fewer insurers, it became more expensive, and the terms upon which it was available became more restrictive.  Genworth appears to have done an amazing job of managing itself out of the financial crisis and putting itself back on strong financial footing.  Good for them.

Third, Kenneth Harney of the Washington Post reports that the Home Valuation Code of Conduct ("HVCC") could be abandoned or replaced with a more thoughtful regulatory response.  The HVCC was a product of supposed appraisal abuse, where lenders would push appraisers to "hit the number" of a property's purchase price, so the loan could be issued.  The allegation was this contributed to inflated home prices, as appraisers over-valued properties under pressure from lenders.  The HVCC is intended to ensure "appraiser independence," by setting up firewalls between the loan officer and the appraiser. 

However, the law of unintended consequences rears its ugly head.  The HVCC has killed many deals, with below-market appraisals, at a time when the housing market recovery is still fragile.  Here's how:

• Because of the appraiser independence requirements, many large banks have turned to appraisal management companies ("AMCs") which act as the intermediary between the lender and the appraiser;
• Often these AMCs are wholly or partially owned by the lender;
• The AMCs often charge a fee, say $400, to the purchaser for the appraisal, but pay the appraiser only a portion of that, say $200.  The AMC pockets the difference;
• To get appraisers willing to take a significantly reduced fee, the AMCs often have to use the least experienced or least respected appraisers;
• This results in appraisals from appraisers who are from far outside the geographic area and are unfamiliar with the local market; and
• AMCs and their appraisers often use distressed sales or bank owned properties as comparables, which unfairly lower the valuation of properties that are "regular" sales.

All in all, a pretty mixed bag for the housing market specifically, and the overall broader market generally.  Here's hoping we start to see some more stability.

The Administration's Position on the Tax Credit and Other Measures to Help the Housing Markets

This is a government press release from the U.S. Treasury Department yesterday, announcing the Administration's support for an extension of the first time home buyer tax credit, as well as an expansion of the credit to include certain purchases of primary residences by "move up" buyers.  This article outlines the specifics of the proposed extended and expanded home buyer tax credit. 

Here's hoping Congress passes legislation that implements these proposed changes.  We're getting ready to go into the traditionally slowest selling season for real estate - from Thanksgiving through early January.  It's possible - probable? hopeful? - that the tax credit could keep the market moving during this slow down period. 

If you look at the activity over the last several weeks, mortgage applications have dropped off and the phones have stopped ringing.  I think that's because those first time buyers either decided NOT to buy, because they had missed the "window" to get closed by November 30, 2009.  Or the first time home buyers decided to sit on the sidelines, play the odds, and bet that legislation like the proposal on the table would get passed and they would get at least the same credit ($8,000) and possibly even more.

Now interest rates are starting to creep up.  I wonder if that fact will get people off the fence.  Lock your rates now, buyers!  October through February is a great time to be a buyer.  Sellers recognize that the selling season slows down to a glacial pace, and people who have to sell can get a bit panicky at the prospect of their house sitting on the market until Spring.  So those of you with good credit and money to put down can get some really good deals.

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit - Official Information on How to File for Your Money!

Here is the official guidance from the IRS on the first time home buyer tax credit.  I will say, your friendly government tax collector provides good, comprehensive information on a whole host of topics.  Note the information on how to get the credit - in other words, a check from the Feds for $8,000 - ASAP, by amending your 2008 tax return.  Get that money sooner, rather than later, and use it for Christmas shopping!

Home Buyer Tax Credit Extension Deal Reached by Senate

Woo hoo!  According to CNN and other sources, the Senate has reached a deal to extend the current first time home buyer tax credit until April 2010, and even to expand the tax credit to certain other buyers of primary residences.  A $6,500 tax credit would be available to purchasers of a "new" primary residence, so long as they have lived in their existing primary residence for at least five (5) continuous years. 

As always, the devil is in the details.  However, Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicated earlier this week that the House would take it's lead from the Senate and pass whatever legislation the Senate sent over.  Here's hoping that's true, and it happens FAST.  Based on my own experience and anecdotal evidence from other agents in my office, the sales market, which was being primarily driven by first time buyers, has come to a dead halt in the last 10 days to two weeks.  Our theory on why that is the case: Buyers are waiting on the sidelines to see if the credit might get even richer. 

Let's get some certainty, and move forward, especially while the interest rate environment is so favorable.  Here's hoping this credit extension and expansion happens, and leads to more home buying and selling. 

Richmond, Virginia - Home Prices Are Rising, But Foreclosures Are Up as Well

Well, the news in the real estate market is mixed, to say the least.  According to the Standard & Poors/Case-Schiller Index, which tracks real estate data in twenty major metropolitan areas, real estate prices rose again in August 2009 for the third straight month.  The quick rate of recovery, a 7% annualized price increase, in the face of continued unemployment and job losses, has some experts baffled.

In contrast, the other real estate article in today's Richmond Times-Dispatch Business Section reports on the local market and does not have great news.  It reports that while Richmond comes in No. 101 on the list of Top Foreclosure Cities, the rate of foreclosures is up 24% over the previous month and 90% year over year.  OUCH!  So while our ranking has dropped us out of the Top 100 Foreclosure Cities, all that really means is it has gotten so much worse in other markets, that even significant increases in foreclosure activity here are not enough to "keep up" with the worst markets.

All in all, a pretty confusing picture.  We real estate professionals are worried, and watching the activity in the market closely.  I will say that in my office, which has a significant chunk of the market share for several of the more stable and consistent City of Richmond neighborhoods, an informal poll of the agents shows people are VERY concerned about the lack of activity.  Frankly, there are only two buyer demographics driving this market right now:

• First time home buyers; and
• Investors with cash.

Both of those buyer groups tend to focus on lower priced properties, so are no help with the inventory priced above $200,000.  Investors can't get credit from banks to buy, so only those with cash are in the market, and there aren't lots of those folks. 

With first time home buyers, everything dropped off a cliff last week, once the chatter about the extension of the tax credit began.  It seems like all the first time buyers have decided to sit on the sidelines to "wait and see" what Congress will do with the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit.  Some are betting that it will get bigger.  That's big gamble in my mind, against what my stepfather calls "The Hungarian Cinch," a bet you can't lose, $8,000 FREE dollars.  It's super-frustrating as an agent, because the other elements of the buying environment - inventory, affordability, interest rates - will never get better in our lifetime.  Even if the credit comes back as $10,000, if the interest rates start to creep up, which we've been seeing, that extra $2,000 is chump change compared to the additional interest you'll pay over the life of the loan.

I have no idea what Congress will do. I do think if the tax credit is not extended or expanded, the activity in the market will come to almost a dead halt until possibly Spring 2010.  Buckle up and hunker down, people.  Unless you are one of those two buyer groups above, or just have lots of money and have fared well in this recession, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Richmond, Virginia - It's Restaurant Week!

Woo hoo, foodies all over town having been waiting for this week!  While the kiddies get excited over Halloween, we get excited over awesome food at a reasonable price with a portion donated to two great causes.  Eat your face off and feel good about doing it!

Here is the complete restaurant week guide from www.richmond.com.  The short version is you get a three course, prix fixe menu for $25.09, and $2.09 of every meal goes to support Meals on Wheels and the Central Virginia Foodbank.  Some of my personal favorites, including Amici, Rowland's, and Zeus Gallery, are on the list again this year.  Some newbies that I really want to try, including Stronghill Dining Company and the Water Grill, have joined these perennial favorites.

Baby Sis had a GREAT dinner last night at Acacia, and highly recommends the oyster stew.  I haven't made it out yet this week, but I'm so looking forward to our upcoming girls' night out.  Maybe if I play my cards right I can go out to eat twice!  A girl can dream....

So, I know it's a tough economy, and people are cutting back, and tightening their belts.  But consider loosening that belt this week, both literally and figuratively.  Treat yourself and a friend to a wonderful meal, support your local restaurants, and donate to two great causes.  Sounds like a win-win-win to me.