Interesting. I added a little polling widget to the blog for a few days. The poll asks the question "When do you believe the real estate market will hit bottom?" So far we have the following results, based on 83 responses:
July-September 2009: 27%
October-December 2009: 26%
First Half, 2010: 20%
Second Half, 2010: 26%
So while a few more than 50% believe the bottom will come - or is here! - this year, 46% believe it's not until next year, and of those folks, more than half believe the bottom is another full year away.
If we assume these poll results are representative of what active buyers believe, then almost half of the people in the market to buy will be fence-sitting, waiting for better prices next year. That is all well and good if price was the only relevant factor in the ultimate VALUE that you get when purchasing. But there are other considerations, such as amount of inventory, interest rates - which are still low, but can't stay low forever - and the first time home buyer tax credit, which goes POOF! if you are not closed by November 30, 2009.
The market, or at least the sub-markets in which I do the vast majority of my business, is showing signs of picking up, for which we are all happy and grateful. The reality is no one is going to know when the bottom was until it is already past us. But for now, the poll is interesting, so I'm going to leave it up for a few more days. Give it a click!
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