Analysis of the Central Virginia Area Housing Market - Third Quarter 2009

Well, the report commissioned by the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service ("CVRMLS") on the housing market for the Third Quarter 2009 was just released.  Thank goodness, the overall consensus is guardedly optimistic. 

Good news:  There seems to be some consensus that the recession has ended and we are in what will be a slow-but-steady economic recovery.  The unknowns that will be a drag on the economy:  the job market, and still-rising unemployment rates.  Richmond, at 1.7% job losses, is doing better than the statewide average of 3.0% job losses, but 20,000 overall jobs lost in the Greater Richmond Metropolitan area still seems like a pretty big number to me.

The other good news:  Virginia should recover faster than other areas, because the state economy was hit (relatively) less hard than much of the country. 

The Report's sections that focus more specifically on the housing market have some positive information, but I'd say on a closer read, it's definitely a more mixed bag, trending to negative, in my opinion.  Sales volumes in general are up.  However, check out the chart on Page 5 of the Report.  Here's what it says - but in pretty bar chart form:

• The sale of homes priced under $100,000 is up 80% over 3Q 2008;
• The sale of homes priced $100,000-$199,999 is up 21% over 3Q 2008;
• The sale of homes priced anywhere over $200,000 is DOWN anywhere from 12%-23%.

Ouch.  The other bad news: Sales prices are still in decline, although not as steep a decline.  So, the first time buyer price range and the bargain-basement investor price range are MOVING.  But anything over $200,000 is not selling so well.  Although maybe as those $100,000-$200,000 sellers sell, they'll buy the move-up house.  We can hope....

So...bottom line, those of us in the business are trying to stay positive, but it's tough.  Every deal has hair.  And just not many deals seem to be getting done.  I'd love more business, I'm not embarassed to say. [;)]  Anyone out there looking to buy or sell?  Give me a call, or drop me an e-mail at melissasavenko@gmail.com.  I'd love to help you.

Comments

[Melissa Loughridge Savenko]

Awww...thanks so much! That is quite seriously the nicest thing anyone has said to me in quite a while. You are the best! You are absolutely right, negativity has no place and no purpose. I'm plugging along with head down, and working hard. I continue to REALLY love what I do - most of the time [;)] - but this market can be discouraging at times. If things don't pick up, I just might take you up on the Atlanta job offer. Thanks so much for the kind words and lovely sentiment. Right back atcha!

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000224456207]

Hang in there, if it doesn't work out, you can come to ATL and run my real estate department. Plenty of people you don't see everyday are pulling for you. You are brilliant, and an asset to everything. Don't let things you can't control get you down. You are you, and that's a pretty awesome package of fun, friendly, charismatic, and intelligent. Everybody has down days, but keep your eyes on the horizon, like we did decades ago. There is a lot of opportunity out there.