Analysis of Pending Properties in Urban Richmond - A Sobering Look

Well, I just ran the pending properties in Area 10 of the City of Richmond.  Area 10 is realtor-speak for Fulton Hill, Church Hill, Downtown, Oregon Hill, Jackson Ward, Carver, the Maymont/Byrd Park area, the Fan District, Carytown, and the Museum District.  "Pending" properties are under contract, but haven't yet closed.

Here are the results as of today, November 3, 2009:

• Priced $200,000 or under: 65
• Priced $200,001-$300,000:    17
• Priced $300,001-$400,000:    5
• Priced over $400,000:    3
• TOTAL PENDINGS: 90

Ouch.  If you do most of your business in the Fan District and the Museum District, where you can't get into a single family home for less than $250,000, in the case of the Museum District, and less than $300,000 in the case of the Fan District, them's not good numbers.  AND, what you get for those entry level prices are typically going to be fixer-uppers.  My clients that want fixer-uppers are few and far between, these days.

Clearly, as we keep hearing, the first time home buyers are driving the real estate market.  But with the current tax credit expiring November 30, 2009 and talk of an extension of that credit to April 2010, activity even in that market has slowed to a glacial pace.

People have missed the window on the existing tax credit.  Buyers without a house under contract are rolling the dice that the credit gets extended until April 30, 2010, the current proposal on the table.  If that happens, I'm worried those first time home buyers will sit on the fence until late Winter, early Spring 2010.  That could make for a long, hard winter.  What might change that?  If interest rates go up.  I'm staying optimistic, but this market has been completely squirrely.  Stay tuned.....

Comments

[Melissa Loughridge Savenko]

Keith:

I am taking a look at the Q3 numbers from 2006-2009 now. So far, I can tell you what we already know - sales volume year-over-year has dropped sigificantly.

2006: 193
2007: 190
2008: 147
2009: 123

I'll have more information on the price point break outs soon. Best, Melissa

[Keith Davis]

Melissa,
I keep thinking about these numbers and am really quite dumbfounded by them. I was hoping you wouldn't mind sharing one more piece of info.
In 2006 or 2007, for area 10, what was the breakout in Q3 for closed sales by the same price ranges? I feel like your numbers show a crazy pattern, but I was hoping to have a comparative point.
Any chance?
Keith

[Scott Burger]

Oreogn Hill Home Improvement Council (OHHIC) is building a few affordable houses. ohhic.org