I admit it. I was one of the pessimists, and I was predicting that sales would come to a dead halt on May 1, 2010, after the expiration of the federal tax credits.
Well, it looks like I was wrong. And believe me, this is one prediction I would LOVE to be wrong on. Looking at just the Fan and Museum District, I've been surprised that sales velocity has seemed to remain at least stable, if not up, since April 30 came and went. It also seemed - without testing the data, because we're all BUSY in my office - YEA! - like houses in the price points that had been totally stagnant, $400,000 to $800,000, were selling all of a sudden. In the last two weeks, several $400,000+ houses in the Fan have gone under contract within a matter of days, and several $600,000+ houses that have been on the market 30+ days went under contract also.
So, I decided today I would at least take a quick look at the hard data. I'll try to get to a more detailed analysis later, but the short version is the numbers are a WOW. I looked at only pending sales in Area 10, which is the Central City of Richmond - Church Hill, Oregon Hill, Downtown, Jackson Ward, Carver, Byrd Park, Fan, Museum District. These are houses that are under contract, but the sale has not yet been finalized. Here's what the numbers look like:
Pending Sales, Area 10, February 1-March 31, 2010: 23
Pending Sales, Area 10, April 1-Current: 99
Now, even if you consider the artificial demand created by the tax credit, that's still a more than 400% sales increase, even though the second period is about 12 days shorter than the first.
What does this mean? Analysis of that questions is going to have to wait until I have some more time. Right now, duty calls. But the signs look good, people. This pessimist is becoming cautiously optimistic.
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