OK, I keep referring to how many new apartment units there are in Richmond, Virginia, particularly Downtown/Shockoe Bottom, and wondering if there are enough bodies to fill them. I've decided to tally up the various projects to see how many new units there are online and/or in development. Here's what I have:
SHOCKOE BOTTOM/SHOCKOE SLIP:
1. Bobber Flats, 2001 E. Franklin Street, 41 Units
2. Old Stone Row, 21st and Main Street, 96 Units
3. Engine Company Lofts, 2000 Block of East Main Street, 28 Units
4. Trolley Commons, 2001 East Main Street, 80 Units
5. Cedar Broad Apartments, what I call "The McDonald's Project," 1900 Block of East Broad Street, 204 Units
6. 2001 East, 2001 East Broad Street, 75 Units
10. Monument Construction Building, 1425 Cary Street, 38 Units
11. Harvester Project, Cold Storage Building #6, 36 Units
12. Canal Lofts IV, 18th and East Main next to Have a Nice Day Cafe, 124 Units
12. Genesis Townhouse Project, Union Hill, 150 Units
11. Marcellus Cox Building, 19th and East Marshall, 120-130 Units
TOTAL BOTTOM/SLIP/UNION HILL UNITS: 992-1,002
1. Berry Burke Building, 525 East Grace Street, _____ Units
2. Montaldo's Building, a/k/a Pasture, East Grace Street, 4 Units
4. Hotel John Marshall, Corner of N. 5th and East Franklin, 238 Units
5. First National Bank Building, 825 East Main Street, 154 Units
6. 8 1/2 Canal, 8 1/2 Canal Street, 160 Units
TOTAL DOWNTOWN UNITS: 556 + Berry Burke
1. To Be Named Gilbane Project, 1200 Block of West Marshall, 136 Units
2. Eggleston Property Project, 2nd Street, 31 Units
3. To Be Named, 1325 West Broad, 19 Units
4. Hippodrome, 2nd Street, 29 Units
TOTAL JACKSON WARD/CARVER UNITS: 215
1. Former Mercer Property, 901 McDonough Street, 188 Units
2. Miller Manufacturing Project, 5th and Stockton, 210 Units
TOTAL MANCHESTER UNITS: 398
1. The Collegiate, Chamberlayne Avenue Just North of Interstate 95, 270 Units
2. To Be Named Virginia Union Project, 2300 Lombardy Avenue, 33 Units
TOTAL NORTHSIDE UNITS: 303
TOTAL UNITS: 2,464-2,474+
If I adjust for number of people in these units, since many are 2-4 bedrooms, it can be anywhere from 3,696 new residents required, using a multiplier of 1.5, to 7,392, using a multiplier of 3. Are there going to be enough new bodies to fill all these apartments? I sure hope so. No one wants to see any of these projects fail, that would be bad for the City of Richmond and the surrounding neighborhoods. But I do have some worries:
- I am sure I've forgotten or missed some new projects.
- This analysis does not take into account condominium projects that came on-line 2008-2009 and have significant rental components. Vistas on the James and Miller & Rhoads come to mind.
- What about the existing apartment inventory? Do new projects just cannibalize the older, not-as-fancy projects?
- This doesn't include two new projects in Scotts Addition, 3600 West Broad and 3200 West Clay (135 units). And I will be shocked if the Interbake Foods Building does not have a significant apartment component. These three projects alone should add over 500 new units in a very desirable location.
- Why are people paying $1,600/month and up for an apartment? That's a mortgage payment on a $300,000 house in the Fan/Museum District/Carytown/Munford/Bellevue/take your pick "hot" neighborhood.
I'd love to hear people's thoughts and comments on the apartment building craze. Do you think there is going to be an oversupply of apartments in the City? Why do people want to rent vs. buy?